Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.097642 0.111831 0.127257 0.145262 0.165685 0.188119 0.214618
2026-02-01 0.072650 0.090302 0.111006 0.137035 0.168836 0.206377 0.254011
2026-02-08 0.056497 0.075769 0.100017 0.132656 0.175332 0.229110 0.301894
2026-02-15 0.044168 0.063709 0.089996 0.127751 0.180372 0.250868 0.352194
2026-02-22 0.037011 0.057193 0.086111 0.130251 0.195546 0.288124 0.428779
2026-03-01 0.029497 0.048756 0.078097 0.125598 0.200011 0.311399 0.489817
2026-03-08 0.023942 0.042215 0.071736 0.122284 0.205885 0.337585 0.559256
2026-03-15 0.019595 0.036767 0.066119 0.119139 0.211468 0.364114 0.633311
2026-03-22 0.017093 0.033994 0.064439 0.122233 0.227782 0.410203 0.745953
2026-03-29 0.014514 0.030559 0.060978 0.121577 0.237463 0.446494 0.847320
2026-04-05 0.012663 0.028147 0.058965 0.123224 0.251549 0.492477 0.972501
2026-04-12 0.011162 0.026139 0.057369 0.125382 0.266915 0.542911 1.113042
2026-04-19 0.009179 0.022731 0.052432 0.120181 0.267449 0.566360 1.207761
2026-04-26 0.007427 0.019449 0.047131 0.113244 0.263280 0.580026 1.285502
2026-05-03 0.006209 0.017157 0.043588 0.109541 0.265464 0.607134 1.395363
2026-05-10 0.005178 0.015084 0.040144 0.105415 0.266014 0.630900 1.501881
2026-05-17 0.004628 0.014157 0.039314 0.107464 0.281360 0.689668 1.694858
2026-05-24 0.003891 0.012523 0.036348 0.103569 0.281655 0.714179 1.813242
2026-05-31 0.003318 0.011220 0.033988 0.100796 0.284288 0.744609 1.950227
2026-06-07 0.002840 0.010080 0.031838 0.098169 0.286846 0.775249 2.092331
2026-06-14 0.002593 0.009616 0.031542 0.100730 0.303830 0.844545 2.341282
2026-06-21 0.002288 0.008878 0.030267 0.100177 0.312077 0.892529 2.542292
2026-06-28 0.002070 0.008386 0.029658 0.101540 0.326103 0.957962 2.798971